As published by Staffing Industry Analyst:
It may be a bit before job growth gets back up to speed, and a continuation of severe labor shortages is more likely, according to The Conference Board. Its Employment Trends Index fell in September — its first decrease in seven months — to a level of 110.35.
“The Employment Trends Index has flattened since July, suggesting it may be a few months before the pace of job growth regains the momentum of earlier this year,” said Gad Levanon, head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “The chief culprit behind lagging job growth has been the summer surge in Covid-19 infections associated with the Delta variant.”
Spending on services done in person — and hiring for such services — has slowed in recent months, the organization noted.
“With new cases now trending downward, the risk of infection seems poised to decline over the rest of the year but remain significant,” Levanon said. “Thus, we expect more risk-averse consumers to continue to spend less on in-person services than they did pre-pandemic.”
The Conference Board noted recruiting difficulties remained historically high in September despite the opening of schools and expiration of pandemic-related unemployment assistance. It also reported vaccine mandates are causing terminations and further reducing labor supply for large employers.
“It is becoming more likely that severe labor shortages will continue impacting the US economy in the months ahead,” Levanon said. “In such a scenario, wages will continue to rise rapidly — contributing to faster inflation — and economic growth will gradually become more encumbered by labor supply constraints.”
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